FAQ

1. What leagues do operabet.com provide?

Answer: At the moment operabet.com provide league data since 2004/2005 for:

  • top 5 English leagues (for 5th tier league the data are available since 2005/2006)
  • top 4 Scottish leagues
  • top 2 German leagues
  • top 2 French leagues
  • top 2 Spanish leagues
  • top 2 Italian leagues
  • top Portuguese league
  • top Greek league
  • top Belgium league
  • top Netherlands league
  • top Turkish league

There is a plan to extend new leagues like MLS or Russian in coming months. If you would like to contribute to the development or have a wish for specific league, feel free to contact us: http://www.operabet.com/contact/

2. How are predictions calculated?

There are 2 predictions engines that calculate predictions:

- 1x2 engine (green-labelled predictions)

- Goals engine (black-labelled predictions)

Based on the backtesting, both engines have yield in range 2% - 5% (varies league by league).

1x2 Engine

This engine is trying to calculate probabilities using advanced engine and to tip on home win, draw or away win. Every competition has its own set of variables that tries to predict (and that is one of uniqueness of our engines).

Variables that engine takes into consideration:

- stats from how many games from the past are taken for each game prediction (leagues where is more volatility, have this variable lower, while stable leagues take more games into consideration)

- how home teams advantage is taken into consideration (home/away ELOs versus ELOs of all games played by teams)

- how draws and narrow wins are taken into consideration (some leagues have a lot of draws, so machine gives more per cents to predictions for those leagues)

- team powers - for home team his home power and overall rank and for away team away power and overall rank

- and some advanced variables that are our secret :)

Goals Engine

Our goals engine tries to predict exact score (based on Poisson distribution it also draws probabilities of each team scoring N goals in a nice curve). Side product is over/under 2.5 prediction that is marked in black.

This algorithm take into consideration following variables:

- stats from how many games from the past are taken for each game prediction (leagues where is more volatility, have this variable lower, while stable leagues take more games into consideration)

- how home teams advantage is taken into consideration (home/away ELOs versus ELOs of all games played by teams)

- and some advanced variables that are our secret :)

What is special in our goals prediction is also the formula that is counting the weight of the goal, e.g. if Barcelona is winning 6:0 against Cadiz, Cordoba and Betis, then the machine do not expect that they will win 6:0 against Real (but those things also happen). Machine weights goal relatively to the strength of an opponent and in every new prediction it looks on the new opponent strength. using this principle we get amazing results.

 

3. How are ratings calculated?

Ratings are calculated based on ELO rankings principle - as used with chess masters, with minor modifications.

Ratings are updated on 14th and 28th day in each month. There are 2 ranks calculated - Overall, Home and Away for each team. ELO rating is updated only after 4 games played, so if team plays less, then their points can stay the same on next calculation date.

Strong leagues like English Premier League have average rank 2400. Average top leagues in europe like Belgian are in region of 2100 - 2250. In world of ELO rank where the difference between ELOs of 2 teams is 200, the stronger has 76% chance of winning while other one has 24 % chance of winning, if the match would not be possible to end as draw. Of course draw calculation was a challenge that needed to be done. At some cases, percents of draw probability is extremely low or extremely high. Those numbers must be treated less seriously, but they indicate the trend (very likely to end as draw/not likely to end as draw).

More information about ELO rank can be found at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

4. I am not sure about the navigation - how does that work?

It is really simpler than it might look like - navigation overview operabet

5. Coach changes are sometimes not accurate

Yes this is true. Sometimes there are assistants of managers stepping up and our data provided marks this as a coach change. We try to avoid showing such changes, but we are not at the moment perfect, thanks for understanding :) Also the date of change is not the date of appointment of a coach, but the date of the match - when the coach was different than previous one.

6. Finished matches are not updated every day and some data might not be perfect (although we try to be as close to 100% as possible)

Because we are free service with limited budget, we rely a lot on our partners - out of which to mention:

http://football-data.co.uk/

http://xmlsoccer.com/

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/

https://www.bwin.com/

and few more.

In case you are interested in donating some amount of money, advanced source can be provided in region of hundreds/thousand euros a month. At the moment we cover hosting for site, for calculation engine (java program with over 30000 lines of code running on VPS) and paying for data from external source. But we do it for all of us - to have the ultimate betting site where all necessary information is available. So, every helping hand is appreciated :)